Now that the Oscar nominations are here, Oscar predictions are the thing. A lot of us love playing the prediction game. And that’s fine unless you don’t screw it. Just kidding, there is nothing to screw here. We all just want our favorite movie to win an Oscar or two. Okay, or three (!)
We have looked into 2019 Oscar nominations and predictions and compared them with TruePublic votes which have been gathered through anonymous polling.
Note* The results presented by TruePublic are being updated with every new vote. So, they might change over time. You can check the progress of each question by “following” it on the app. If you would like to make your own Oscar predictions make sure to install the app and start voting:
The Academy Award for Best Picture nominees are:
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Black Panther
- Green Book
- A Star is Born
According to the IMDb, “Roma” will win Best Picture. However, TruePublic polling results show that “A Star is Born” has got better chances to win. 67% of the respondents believe that “A Star is Born” should win Best Picture and only 10% that “Roma” should win.
Note that only four options have been offered for selection instead of eight, so the results might have been different should there be other options too.
Interestingly enough, 70% of the respondents said that they had not watched any of the movies nominated for Best Picture. And only 14% of the respondents said they have watched one movie nominated for Best Picture.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
According to the IMDb, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) will win Best Actor in a Leading Role. However, the picture is different if you take a look at TruePublic poll results. It turns out that 46% of the respondents think that Christian Bale (Vice) will win Best Actor. And only 35% believes that Rami Malek will get the Oscar.
It’s interesting to note that women and the people who lean to the Democrats are more prone to choosing Rami Malek as compared to the Republicans and the men population.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
According to the IMDb, Glenn Close (The Wife) will win the Best Actress in a Leading Role. But controversially enough, a whopping 69% of TruePublic users think that Lady Gaga is going to get the Oscar. And only 8% believe that Glenn Close should get it.
Note that a lot of people (93% of the respondents) do not even know what’s the backstory of how the movie “A Star Is Born” got made. Demographically, only the Baby Boomers seem to know about it while the Millennials, Generation X and Generation Z have no idea what’s the backstory of the movie.
And one more thing to note — 44% of the respondents think that “A Star is Born” would be a good date movie.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
According to the IMDb, Mahershala Ali (Green Book) should receive Best Actor in a Supporting Role, while according to the polling results at TruePublic, Sam Elliot (A Star is Born) and Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) have more chances to get the win.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
According to the IMDb, Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) should win the Oscar. The polling results at TruePublic show that 77% of the respondents think that Emma Stone should win the Oscar.
However, note that only four options have been offered for selection instead of five, so the results might have been different should there be other options too.
Apart from Oscar predictions, there are a few interesting facts that we have found out through TruePublic anonymous polling.
85% of the respondents answered that they had not watched the Oscars 2018.
To the question “Where will you watch the Oscars?” 73% answered that they are not watching.
46% of the Black population strongly agrees that Black Panther is worthy of being nominated for Best Picture while the White and the Hispanic populations are neutral (36% and 37% respectively).
In addition, a lot of people believe that the Academy primarily decides on who or which films to award Oscars to based on political friendships (51%) rather than the quality of work (49%). Unlike the Republicans and the Independents, 64% of the Democrats believe that the Academy grants the awards based on the quality of work.
Seems like the Oscar predictions made by the public hugely differ from those made by the IMDb.
With all these statistics at hand, let’s wait and see whether the public expectations meet the decision the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) makes.
You still have time to make your Oscar predictions count.
Originally published on TruePublic’s Medium blog.